With the end of lockdown, economic activity is restarting in France, and the spread of the coronavirus is also increasing, with the fear of a second wave of the epidemic. Five days after the start of the end of lockdown, it is too early to see the effects of this spread, but the Regional Health Agency's daily reports so far allow us to track the epidemic in the region and watch for the first signs of its development. These bulletins will no longer be daily, since the ARS has decided to publish bulletins only twice a week, on Tuesdays and Fridays. This evening's bulletin shows that since Tuesday, the coronavirus has continued to decline in Occitanie. In three days, there are 54 fewer people in hospitals, bringing the total hospitalized to 351. This is a significant decline, but much slower than the increase during the virus's expansion phase, which was 60 more hospitalizations per day when the contamination level was the same. The number of patients being treated in intensive care is also declining, with 11 fewer people over the past three days, reaching 80 people in intensive care today. This figure also shows eight deaths in three days in the regional hospital system. The Regional Health Agency (ARS) still does not count the number of victims outside of hospitals, whether at home or in nursing homes.
Uneven trends within the Occitanie region
While the trend remains downward at the regional level, not all departments are experiencing the same decline. Some departments, such as Haute-Garonne, have seen 16 fewer people in intensive care over three days in the department's hospitals, which now have 46, whereas at the peak of the epidemic there were up to 249 people hospitalized. And six fewer patients in intensive care over three days. Hérault is experiencing the same dynamic, dropping from 271 people in hospitals to 46, including 13 in the last three days. There are departments that are no longer decreasing because there are almost no people left in hospitals. This is the case in Ariège with 3 people hospitalized, Lozère with only 1 person hospitalized, and Tarn-et-Garonne with 5 people hospitalized. But it is in the Pyrénées-Orientales that the decline has been most impressive, going from 129 people hospitalized on March 31 to 5 today. Between the two, 34 deaths were recorded.
Gard and Hautes-Pyrénées are at the bottom of the decline
Two departments, on the other hand, are seeing the decline happen very slowly. This is the case in the Hautes-Pyrénées, which still has 40 people hospitalized. The spread of the coronavirus in this department had been slow but it lasted a long time since the decline only began on April 25, making the Hautes-Pyrénées the most infected department in the entire region taking into account the number of inhabitants. Since then, the decline has been slow with only 1 less person in the department's hospitals over 3 days and it is still the most infected department with 17 people hospitalized per 100,000 inhabitants while the average in Occitanie is only 6 people hospitalized per 100,000 inhabitants. In the Gard, the coronavirus is also resisting with 85 people still hospitalized. This is the department which now has the largest number of people hospitalized ahead of Haute-Garonne and Hérault, which nevertheless have a much larger population. A department that was hit fairly early by the coronavirus, with 113 people hospitalized on April 7, followed by a decline and an even sharper recovery a few days later, with 151 people hospitalized on April 22. The decline then took nearly two weeks to begin and has been less severe than in other departments since then.
The risk of a second wave
We will be able to observe the first effects of the easing of lockdown in the next 10 days. If the increase is small or no increase, the easing of lockdown can continue by moving on to the next stages. If the increase is too significant, the next stages of easing lockdown will be postponed. Re-lockdown is also a scenario envisaged by Edouard Philippe, who adds that everything we do is aimed at avoiding this extreme
. A risk that could persist, according to the World Health Organization, whose director of health emergencies explained that It is very difficult to say when we will be able to overcome it. This virus could become endemic in our communities. And a vaccine to prevent contagion would not be available for a year, according to the European Medicines Agency, in a scenario it describes as optimistic. In the meantime, all that remains is barrier gestures to protect ourselves and those around us.
@bigorre_org
